The 10 Forces Separating the Winners in 2026
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At Outthinker, we pride ourselves on our ability to identify the forces that are truly shaping competitive advantage today. Rather than relying on predictions or opinions, this year we began with a rigorous analysis of the 2025 Outthinker List: 45 companies that consistently outperform across growth, profitability, and capital efficiency.
We conducted systematic content analysis on more than 300 documents from these firms, looking for the external forces that executives and analysts referenced most frequently and with the greatest conviction.
We then enriched these findings with insights from more than 200 conversations with Chief Strategy Officers and senior leaders across our network. Their perspectives helped validate which themes were consistently shaping real strategic choices.
After this research was complete, we brought the resulting trends to the monthly member meeting of our Outthinker Coaches Network to pressure test and refine them. Their cross-industry, on-the-ground perspective added the nuance and human insight that helped bring each trend to life.
The result is a set of 10 strategic tailwinds grounded in research, validated by senior strategy leaders, and sharpened by coaches who see how these forces play out every day.
1. AI and automation redefine advantage
Artificial intelligence is compressing competitive advantage faster than any technology in history. The distance between innovation and commoditization continues to shrink, turning yesterday’s differentiators into today’s table stakes.
The organizations pulling ahead are not simply adding AI features. They are restructuring how work gets done and embedding intelligence into products, processes, and decision making.
Kevin Darbelnet, founder/principal of Strategy Matrix, framed the AI conversation away from fear and toward capability, emphasizing that advantage comes from how leaders use AI rather than from the technology itself. Leslie DaCruz, CEO of Stradeation, added an important counterweight, noting that as research and analysis become easier to generate, “the differentiator is increasingly how you deliver insight, communicate it, build trust, and mobilize teams, because those are the human skills clients still pay for.”
Ethan Martin, head coach and CEO of PFD Group, Inc., reinforced this point by emphasizing that “human leadership is what activates teams and drives alignment,” and that this role becomes more important rather than less as AI accelerates.
2. Capital allocation discipline as strategy
In an environment shaped by elevated interest rates, inflation volatility, and geopolitical uncertainty, capital allocation has become one of the clearest signals of strategic maturity.
High-performing organizations are not chasing growth at any cost. They are making disciplined choices about where to invest, when to return capital, and when to preserve flexibility.
This trend resonated immediately in the room. Shannon Wallis, president at Cascade Leadership, observed, “Capital allocation exposes true priorities and discipline.” In uncertain times, that discipline becomes a competitive advantage. The absence of it quickly becomes a headwind.
3. Supply chain resilience as a competitive weapon
Supply chains have shifted from being an operational afterthought to a strategic priority. What was once optimized primarily for efficiency is now engineered for resilience, reliability, and strategic advantage.
Organizations that invested early in diversification, nearshoring, digital visibility, and strategic inventory were able to turn disruption into market share gains. Those that did not discovered how fragile optimization can be.
The deeper insight here is that resilience has moved from defense to offense. What once looked like cost is now a source of advantage.
4. Digital platforms and ecosystems as compounding advantage
Value creation is increasingly driven by how well organizations coordinate systems rather than how well they optimize individual components.
As global growth strategist Jill Hellman observed, “Sometimes, it’s not about building a new ecosystem. It’s actually about recognizing the one you already have and then learning how to coordinate it in a way that delivers value to your customer.” Many leaders struggle simply because they do not see the networks they already sit within. “People aren’t always used to seeing the network they’re in. Never mind how to turn it into action or value. But it’s fun to show them.”
Jill also suggested that the growing familiarity with AI and neural networks may make these systems easier to visualize. “Maybe with the discussions about neural networks on the rise because of AI, these pictures may become more obvious or easier to see.” Once leaders can see the ecosystem, coordination replaces control and value begins to compound.
5. Health, wellness, and personalization focused on outcomes
Across industries, people are increasingly buying outcomes rather than products, and they expect those outcomes to be measurable and personalized.
This trend lit up the discussion. Ellie Gates, a business professor and executive coach, shared how health and wellness has become a core focus at University of Colorado Boulder for students, staff, and faculty and is increasingly embedded in the institution’s culture.
Strategy consultant John Kastan framed wellness as a recruitment and retention strategy, particularly in industries fighting burnout and workforce shortages. Shannon Wallis connected the trend to self-quantification, pointing to “macros, sleep, wearables, and apps that make wellness visible and trackable.”
Roberto Erario, a strategy and leadership coach, added a sharper edge, observing that “the health of the leadership team is becoming a strategic variable.” When senior teams are stressed and sleep deprived, decision quality deteriorates, fear rises, and organizations become reactive. That is a real competitive disadvantage.
6. Energy transition and sustainability as economic capability
Sustainability has evolved from corporate social responsibility to economic strategy. Energy efficiency, electrification, and emissions reduction increasingly deliver cost advantages, operational resilience, and differentiation.
Ellie Gates noted how quickly sustainability is rising in higher education, including the creation of new degree programs built around it. Jovin Hurry, a sustainability expert who also serves as a core team member at NELIS, reframed sustainability as an operational capability rather than a values statement, noting that upcoming regulations will force organizations and their suppliers to build new data systems and work differently across functions.
7. Affordability and value reframing under pressure
Persistent inflation and economic uncertainty are changing how customers evaluate value. Price sensitivity has increased, but expectations have not fallen in lockstep. As a result, winning organizations are not racing to the bottom on price. They are getting far more precise about what value really means to their customers.
The strategic move is prioritization. Leaders are deliberately over-investing in the elements that matter most, such as quality, reliability, trust, and experience, while under-investing in areas customers value less. This allows them to protect margins without eroding confidence.
Discounting without clarity may create short-term relief, but it comes at a long-term cost. It weakens brand positioning, trains customers to wait for concessions, and undermines trust. The organizations that outperform treat affordability not as a blunt instrument, but as a design challenge, reshaping offerings to deliver the right value at the right price.
This is exactly the tension we explore in our recent piece on PulteGroup, where value reframing becomes a strategic lever rather than a reaction to pressure.
8. Risk, compliance, and resilience as trust builders
Risk management has moved beyond defense. In many sectors, trust and reliability now directly influence customer loyalty and partner selection.
Roberto Erario warned that cyber attacks increasingly come “through the weakest company in an ecosystem.”
Strategic advisor Maïna K. M’Poyo reframed the issue by highlighting how fragmented regulatory environments change the strategic game. His example of a Pan-African bank navigating dozens of regulatory regimes illustrated how mapping complexity can itself become a competitive advantage.
9. Omnichannel engagement and ownership of the relationship
Omnichannel engagement continues to divide performers from laggards because it determines who owns the customer relationship. In fragmented experiences, customers drift toward the platform that makes things easiest, not the brand that created the value.
The leaders are not simply present across channels. They connect them into a coherent journey. The payoff is reduced friction, stronger loyalty, richer data, and higher lifetime value, along with less dependence on third-party platforms. Over time, this control of the relationship becomes a compounding advantage that is difficult for competitors to unwind.
10. Demographic and workforce shifts as strategic reality
Demographic change and workforce expectations are reshaping both demand and execution. Aging populations, Gen Z values, and talent scarcity are no longer future concerns.
As John Kastan’s earlier comments on burnout made clear, workforce realities are no longer an HR sidebar. They are growth constraints or growth levers depending on how leaders respond.
Luring the tiger from the mountain
There is an old Chinese stratagem known as “lure the tiger from the mountain”. Rather than confronting strength directly, you change the terrain so the opponent loses its advantage.
That is the opportunity embedded in these 10 tailwinds. They are not threats to resist. They are terrain shifts to exploit. The organizations that outperform in 2026 will not be the strongest in yesterday’s game. They will be the ones that reposition early as the ground moves beneath them.
As Kevin Darbelnet reflected, “One of the things I value most about the Outthinker Networks is the cross industry perspective. Seeing macro trends through the eyes of leaders in very different sectors helps me spot ideas I can use to help my clients outthink their competition.”
Join us in Miami
These conversations will continue at the Outthinker Coaches Summit in Miami on February 26 and 27, 2026. The summit brings together experienced coaches, strategists, and operators to sharpen insight, challenge assumptions, and translate strategic thinking into action.
If your work is helping leaders outthink uncertainty and build durable advantage, I invite you to join us in Miami and be part of the conversation shaping what comes next.
To make the most of 2026, visit Outthinker.com today and join the growing network of strategy experts riding the winds of success.
Outthinker Networks is a global peer group of heads of strategy, innovation, and transformation at $1B+ companies who are determined to move their organizations to the next level. Members engage in curated learning, practical conversations, and networking opportunities to be more successful in performing their roles, solving their top challenges, and keeping their organizations ahead of the pace of disruption.
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